“The prospect that the Fed may be ‘on hold’ instead of cutting rates this year may be why the USD has gotten an extra fillip of appreciation (beyond the haven-seeking impulse) during the war,” Wizman added. “With the OIS market previously projecting more than two cuts from the Fed in 2026 (as of last week) it is the U.S.’s rate outlook that is seen to have the greatest ‘potential’ to be overturned by another burst of global inflation in 2026, if energy supplies become constrained.”
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